Hansen Intel Report

Space Weather

Live from NOAA SWPC · as of Oct 20, 6:05 PM MT
Right nowNOAA space weather scales · 3-day outlook below each

Radio blackouts

R0none

No radio blackouts.

Wed

M 25% X 5%

Thu

M 25% X 5%

Fri

M 20% X 5%

Radiation storms

S0none

No radiation storm.

Wed

S1+ 5%

Thu

S1+ 5%

Fri

S1+ 5%

Geomagnetic storms

G0none

Quiet. No geomagnetic storm.

Wed

G1

Thu

G0

Fri

G0

CME watch

None inbound

  • “No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.”

NOAA forecast discussion · Oct 20, 6:30 AM MT

Kp indexnow Kp 3.0 · 3-day peak forecast Kp 3.7
Kp 5 · G1
Kp 7 · Utah aurora
Oct 17, 9:00 PM MTOct 23, 6:00 PM MT
Kp 0-3 quiet4 active5-6 storm (G1-G2)7+ strong (G3+)faded = NOAA forecast
Northern lights over Utah: unlikely. Forecast peaks at Kp 3.7; Utah usually needs Kp 7 or higher.
Solar flares · last 7 days77 flares · 1 M-class · 0 X-class · largest first
  1. M1.6peak Oct 19, 3:03 AM MTM-class
  2. C6.9peak Oct 13, 8:21 PM MT
  3. C6.0peak Oct 16, 1:14 PM MT
  4. C4.9peak Oct 15, 9:55 AM MT
  5. C3.7peak Oct 18, 12:44 AM MT
  6. C3.5peak Oct 19, 8:45 PM MT
  7. C3.4peak Oct 17, 9:53 PM MT
  8. C3.1peak Oct 15, 6:19 PM MT
  9. C3.0peak Oct 15, 7:17 PM MT
  10. C2.8peak Oct 14, 8:07 PM MT

Latest flare: C1.4 peaked Oct 20, 12:36 PM MT · X-ray level now B5.0. Scale: A, B, C (minor), M (moderate, R1-R2), X (major, R3+).

Space Weather News3 stories
  1. 1

    Fast solar wind brings chance of minor G1 geomagnetic storm on Oct. 20

    NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center forecast G1 (minor) geomagnetic storming on Oct. 20 from a coronal hole high-speed stream, with Kp peaking near 4.67. EarthSky reported the fast solar wind was arriving and could bring auroras at high latitudes. Forbes reported Alaska has the best viewing odds, with northern states from Washington to Michigan possible.

    NOAA SWPC · 11h ago →EarthSky · 12h ago →Forbes · 6h ago →
  2. 2

    Sunspot region AR4551 produces M1.7 flare and minor radio blackout

    Sunspot region AR4551 produced an M1.7 (moderate) solar flare that peaked at 09:03 UTC on Oct. 19, EarthSky reported. The flare caused an R1 (minor) radio blackout over southern Africa, according to EarthSky's daily summary of NOAA data. Forecasters said the flare's coronal mass ejection is not heading toward Earth.

    EarthSky · 1d ago →NOAA SWPC · 1d ago →
  3. 3

    AFRL partners with Virgin Galactic to collect space weather data

    Virgin Galactic announced a two-year agreement with the Air Force Research Laboratory to collect space weather data from its suborbital spacecraft, Air & Space Forces Magazine reported. AFRL will evaluate integrating sensors with Virgin Galactic's next-generation SpaceShip, due for its first commercial flight next year. The data is meant to help researchers understand space weather effects on satellites.

    Air & Space Forces Magazine · 6d ago →
What it affects

Power grid · geomagnetic storms (G) induce currents in long lines.

GPS · storms and big flares add position errors.

Radio · flares (R) black out HF radio on the day side.

Satellites · radiation (S) and storms cause drag and glitches.

Source: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (swpc.noaa.gov). Scales, GOES X-ray flares, planetary Kp and forecast discussion, refreshed every 15 minutes. Times are Mountain Time. Scale days are UTC days.