Now
Both independents (Sanders, King) caucus with Democrats. 35 seats are up (22 R, 13 D). VP Vance breaks 50-50 ties, so Democrats need 51.
Forecaster ratings
Prediction markets · Dem chance of control
Our read (Hansen Intel synthesis, not a forecaster's call)
Lean Democratic, still competitive
Markets give Democrats 63–65%. But raters have Democrats at only 47–49 seats leaning their way (51 needed), so they must win most of the 4–7 toss-ups, nearly all in Republican-held states. Cook calls the chamber itself a toss-up and estimates a Democratic gain of 2–6 seats; they need 4.
Now
Independent Kevin Kiley caucuses with Republicans; 2 seats are vacant. All 435 seats are up.
Forecaster ratings
Prediction markets · Dem chance of control
Our read (Hansen Intel synthesis, not a forecaster's call)
Democrats favored
All three raters already put Democrats at 212–214 seats at least leaning their way (218 needed) with 18–21 toss-ups, versus 200–205 for Republicans. Prediction markets give Democrats about 90%, and the generic-ballot average is D +8.3.
Polymarket: Peltola 74%
Polymarket: Hinson 59%
Polymarket: Marshall 63%
Polymarket: Jackson 61%
Polymarket: El-Sayed 70%
Polymarket: Brown 66%
Polymarket: Talarico 63%
Polymarket: Ricketts 71%
| District | Incumbent | Cook | IE | Sabato |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ-6 | ● Juan Ciscomani (R) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up |
| CA-22 | ● David Valadao (R) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Lean D (flip) |
| CO-8 | ● Gabe Evans (R) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up |
| FL-14 | ● Kathy Castor (D) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up |
| FL-22 | ● Lois Frankel (D, not running) | Toss-up | Tilt R (flip) | Toss-up |
| IA-2 | ● Ashley Hinson (R, not running) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up |
| MI-4 | ● Bill Huizenga (R) | Toss-up | Tilt R | Toss-up |
| MI-7 | ● Tom Barrett (R) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up |
| MI-10 | ● John James (R, not running) | Toss-up | Tilt R | Toss-up |
| MT-1 | ● Ryan Zinke (R, not running) | Toss-up | Tilt R | Lean R |
| NY-17 | ● Mike Lawler (R) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up |
| NC-1 | ● Don Davis (D) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up |
| NC-11 | ● Chuck Edwards (R) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up |
| OH-7 | ● Max Miller (R) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up |
| OH-9 | ● Marcy Kaptur (D) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up |
| PA-8 | ● Rob Bresnahan (R) | Toss-up | Tilt D (flip) | Toss-up |
| TX-15 | ● Monica De La Cruz (R) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up |
| TX-34 | ● Vicente Gonzalez (D) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Lean D |
| VA-1 | ● Rob Wittman (R) | Toss-up | Lean R | Toss-up |
| VA-2 | ● Jen Kiggans (R) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Lean D (flip) |
| WI-3 | ● Derrick Van Orden (R) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up |
Of these, 16 are Republican-held and 5 Democratic-held.
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) vs. Rick Jackson (R)
IE Toss-up · Sabato Toss-up
Joe Lombardo (R, inc.) vs. Aaron Ford (D)
IE Tilt R · Sabato Toss-up · Polymarket Ford 57%
Vivek Ramaswamy (R) vs. Amy Acton (D)
IE Toss-up · Sabato Toss-up · Polymarket Acton 73%
Tom Tiffany (R) vs. David Crowley (D)
IE Toss-up · Sabato Lean D · Polymarket Crowley 81%
Katie Hobbs (D, inc.) vs. Andy Biggs (R)
IE Tilt D · Sabato Lean D
Jocelyn Benson (D) vs. John James (R)
IE Tilt D · Sabato Lean D
Open, ranked-choice (D: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins)
IE Toss-up · Sabato Lean D (flip) · Polymarket Kreiss-Tomkins 79%
Open (D: Rob Sand)
IE Tilt D (flip) · Sabato Lean D (flip)
Ty Masterson (R) vs. Cindy Holscher (D)
IE Tilt R (flip) · Sabato Lean R (flip)
Greg Abbott (R, inc.) vs. Gina Hinojosa (D)
IE Lean R · Sabato Lean R · Polymarket Abbott 74%
Badge = Cook rating.
One-time 5% tax on wealth over $1B to fund health care, food aid and schools. Polymarket: 23% chance it passes.
Require government ID to vote and citizenship checks.
Reverse the 2024 abortion-rights amendment; ban abortion except medical emergency, fetal anomaly, rape or incest.
Scrap ranked-choice voting and return to partisan primaries.
Repeal the state's millionaire's tax.
Allow online sports wagering through licensed operators.
Ratings and odds are snapshots from the dated sources and change often. “Our read” boxes are Hansen Intel synthesis of those numbers, not an independent model. Utah ballot details are on the 2026 SJUT Election page.